Conks: Plumbing Notes

dealer balance sheet primer

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

Plumbing Notes: Shadow Cash

Conks — Thu, 24 Jul 2025 00:50:04 GMT

Welcome to another Conks money market update. In case you missed it, The Great Rebalancing went live recently.

Elsewhere, more infographic prints have been added to the Conks Store — while extended money market commentary is available via Pro. Up next, the belated concluding part of the Shadow Cash Market series is still in the works (due to being infographic-heavy) but should be released by the end of the month. Another sneak peek below…

high-resolution infographics will be released in a separate post

But before that, another ever-expanding money market update…

Summary & Brief Commentary

The TGA rebuild is underway, with up to $1 trillion in issuance hitting the UST (U.S. Treasury) market during the next quarter. The Treasury will take around two to three months of solid, ongoing issuance to reach its present target balance of $850 billion by September month-end. Speculation that officials will lower their target TGA cash balance by around $200 billion is unlikely to become reality. This was proposed to reduce costs, but those savings are immaterial and not worth the Treasury holding a smaller cash cushion. Now, despite the Treasury having commenced issuing up to a $1 trillion “wall of bills” this year, the market seems to have priced in all the funding pressure it desires. The question now is how much of that pressure materializes. Another era of uncertainty has thus emerged in money markets.
Minus the routine cash injections (such as from FHLBs) pushing down money market rates, SOFR and bill yields will start to rise and disconnect from a stagnant overnight Fed Funds rate (o/n FF). Until reserves (including those “neutralized” in the Fed’s RRP facility) decline by at least another $400 billion, the overnight Fed Funds rate (o/n FF) should remain steady. By then, the Fed’s renewed models on reserve scarcity will be put to the test to intercept another repo spike. The Fed’s arsenal of scarcity measures has intensified, including domestic bank borrowing activity in the interbank market and intraday overdrafts (usually incurred when the “wrong type” of banks run low on reserves).
As mentioned in the Global Put Series, a rising o/n FF remains the “canary in the coalmine” for the Fed to begin adding liquidity (via bill purchases, not full-blown QE) — while officials also initiate a “Great Rebalancing”. The Fed’s Waller recently suggested $2.7 trillion as an estimate for the Fed’s lowest comfortable level of reserves, known as LCLoR. Conks has adjusted our own LCLoR estimates to $2.9 trillion, based on Fed calculations, and then adjusted higher for other “covert” drivers, including banks’ intraday liquidity needs causing more hoarding of reserve balances.
The “doom date”, i.e. when reserves grow so scarce the Fed intervenes, has been pushed back to February or March 2026. But in the meantime, traders will now look forward to the most “eventful” QRA (quarterly refunding announcement) this year: the August refunding. As Bessent is set to postpone increased long-end issuance for as long as possible, another $1 trillion in net bill issuance is expected to hit the market the following year. Healthy money fund demand, along with frontier sources (e.g. stablecoins), will absorb this issuance nicely, with money market spreads (such as bill-OIS) widening “only” a few basis points — up to 6bps in our view. Front-end cross-currency (XCCY) bases (see the chartbook below) will also remain “tight”, which (unlike swap spread “tightening”) indicates looser dollar funding conditions.
As for swap spreads and thus the state of Treasury plumbing conditions, the latest policy effort to ease dealer balance sheets has not been well received (as expected). Swap spreads have instead tightened (sold off) since our redux call and a proposal passed to (supposedly) ease constraints via reducing the enhanced version of the SLR (supplementary leverage ratio). Monetary leaders will accordingly need a bigger “relief valve” to truly grease the pipes of the UST plumbing. Conks turned neutral on further tightening in (swap) spreads (and SOFR-FF basis), but we could see further pressures build.
Lastly, in equities, unlike certain pockets of the stock market, speculative hype hasn’t reached the levered space. The basis boiz (Conks’ nickname for providers of levered exposure) continue to price equity repos cheaply as demand remains lackluster. Conks expects tame funding rates to persist through July, likely due to the looming August tariff deadlines. Cue the next round of fireworks!
Changelog: Added t-bills outstanding and 3m XCCY basis futures.
WIP: a STIR monitor/Treasury monitor to accompany these updates.

And with that, onto the chartbook…

dealer balance sheet primer

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

Plumbing Notes: No Limits

Conks — Thu, 10 Jul 2025 01:20:45 GMT

Welcome to another Conks money market update. A sneak peek (and relevant chart) from the upcoming, infographic-heavy Shadow Cash Market: Part II…

But first, another ever-expanding money market update…

Summary & Brief Commentary

The debt limit “guessing game” (of predicting the bill’s passage date) has concluded, with funding pressures in money markets set to intensify. Bill “paydowns” (i.e. a net reduction in bill issuance) during another debt ceiling debacle helped suppress short-term rates and boost repo demand and thus usage of overnight repos (o/n RRPs) at the Fed. Now, however, these flows will unwind, while irregular funding pressures build, eventually forcing the U.S. central bank’s hand. The Fed’s RDE, which measures reserve scarcity (see the near-bottom of the chartbook), will finally start to decline, signaling an increased battle among banks for interbank liquidity and placing upward pressure on o/n FF (overnight Fed Funds).
Not helping the situation, the latest FOMC minutes revealed that The Desk and market participants expected a swift TGA rebuild, a negative (positive) for the SERFF (SOFR-FF basis) curve, as it removed any hope of relief from a proposed slower rebuild, which would have somewhat eased money market pressures.
Any “fireworks” will have to wait, however, until the shredding of around $500 billion in reserve balances stored in banks’ Fed master accounts or “neutralized” in the Fed’s RRP facility — since an increase in central bank RRPs (reverse repos) removes reserves temporarily. Without the RRP chockablock, market participants now expect reserves to fall to $2.9 trillion by early next year, below Conks’ lowest comfortable level of reserves (LcLOR). February next year has become the newly anticipated chokepoint for the U.S. central bank to once again fire up “the money printer” in order to preserve the ampleness of reserves — hopefully preemptively.
Reserve balances will also see more shrinkage from foreign central banks (FCBs) anticipating more policy uncertainty and piling into o/n FRPs (overnight repos at the Fed’s foreign repo pool). These trades with the Fed also neutralize reserve balances while offering an early cash return for FCBs, thus providing superior intraday dollar liquidity (for reserve management purposes) compared to other investments (i.e. bills).
Notes, bonds, and longer-term rates futures, meanwhile, have rallied post the release of the FOMC minutes, after no major surprise. A couple of Fed officials were open to rate cuts (those likely vying for the Fed chair role), while others wanted no further cuts for this year. Subsequent price action suggested that upside pain remains limited, unless fiscal concerns (which The Desk’s latest survey highlighted as a top consideration) re-enter the picture as soon as next week. The short-term selloff we anticipated (actual short-term spooky bonds!) is likely over. We expect yields to remain static over the next week.
Likewise, the FOMC minutes further indicated a stable bid for U.S. bonds, with SOMA manager Perli noting that available data indicated stability in foreign holdings of U.S. assets. As for UST (U.S. Treasury) demand, investment funds, hedge funds, and other levered players continue to step in for banks, FOIs (foreign official institutions, i.e., foreign central banks and governments), and (indirectly) the Fed. Fiscal strains have instead manifested more in swap spreads — the premier gauge of plumbing frictions — as even the front-end of the spreads curve displayed negative plumbing sentiment via tightening i.e. declining price action. Cue the meme: we’re going to need a bigger relief valve!
WIP: a STIR monitor/Treasury monitor to accompany these updates.

And with that, onto the chartbook…

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

Plumbing Notes: Dealer Congestion

Conks — Mon, 30 Jun 2025 21:26:44 GMT

In case you missed it, or you’ve just joined us, the first part of The Shadow Cash Market went live yesterday. What’s more, the first infographic prints are available now in the Conks Store. More will be added when we have time.

As for the next release, Part II is fully in the works…

But first, an ever-expanding money market update…

Summary & Brief Commentary

Bonds have been fully confirmed as “unspooky”, following calls for a sharp long-end selloff flooding in, just as bonds and STIRs started to bottom and rally aggressively.
As indicated by various bank investor surveys, the extreme long position in bonds has been largely wiped out by the recent volatility. The Treasury has shared information on investor participation (by type) for its recent auctions across the curve in June (information that typically becomes available about a week after auctions conclude). The results were unexpectedly positive. Despite the Trump tariff cascade, the lure of UST auctions has remained enticing, with no indication that domestic and foreign investors had fled the U.S. Treasury market. The benchmark 10-year almost reached a record high participation in the latest auction.
Even so, the effort to lower the duration of Treasury debt has persisted (and is only just beginning), confirmed by Treasury Sec Bessent stating it makes no sense to term out U.S. sovereign debt. As bank and foreign official demand for USTs will center on the belly and short-end of the curve, the Treasury will likely target those areas and hold off at the long end when it starts increasing coupon issuance, likely by early (2026) next year.
Nevertheless, that won’t ease strains on severely congested dealer balance sheets, yet another reason to remain bearish on (swap) spreads. Duration demand from foreign investors is insufficient to clear inventories while local currency bonds offer a higher yield pickup, particularly for Japanese investors.
Meanwhile at the ultra-short-end, Conks believes a late-August debt ceiling resolution remains the most likely, while also offering the most upside as priced by the SOFR-FF basis curve. A “prompt” resolve should also help clear remaining RRP balances. After that, only the reserve gap, which still exceeds $400 billion, protects money markets from any turmoil that arises — absent an event of a similar magnitude to the Trump tariff escalation. Reserves should, in the distant future, be drawn down below the dreaded $3 trillion mark, with nothing to offset falling interbank liquidity produced via Fed QT (quantitative tightening). The Fed’s balance sheet reduction will continue at $5 billion per month of USTs (and $35 billion in MBS), causing the Fed little concern to discontinue runoff, at least until September, in our view.
Lastly, Bessent wasn’t fibbing when he said SLR reform was in motion. The FDIC submitted a proposed rule to the Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) this week. Regardless, as Conks has extensively laid out, the Fed’s actions will likely have little impact on UST demand. Deregulatory optimism is set to fade, which will drag swap spreads down with it. Fiscal concerns continue to pressure spreads lower, especially at the long end. We conclude with an unironic “BUCKLE UP”!
Changelog: Bill curve added.
WIP: a STIR monitor coming soon to accompany these updates.

And with that, onto the chartbook…

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

Money Market Update

Conks — Mon, 09 Jun 2025 12:50:56 GMT

Welcome to another Conks update. Going forward, we’re looking to publish one every week. In other news, the first Pro Notes covered the effects of stablecoins on the ultra-short end and why the Fed's removal of IORB (as potentially proposed in the Big Beautiful Bill) is, well, misguided. Next up, our next long-form piece: The Shadow Cash Market…

But before that, one last money market update…

Summary & Brief Commentary

Last week, most grew fearful of “spooky bonds” (Conks’ name for the long end of the curve) in response to numerous dire predictions and higher expected long-end UST yields. So naturally, the curve flattened instead.
Auction graders (including yours truly) will now be out in full force this week with a Wednesday 10-year and Thursday 30-year auction. While yields hover around 5% (and Fintwit worries about fiscal dominance when we are very much still in a monetary dominance era), demand from price-sensitive foreign investors is expected to pick up again. We don’t expect too much of a buyer’s strike.
Still, one metric to consider is dealer balance sheets and the ongoing congestion, with primary dealers continuing to accumulate a larger net long position (chart below) in U.S. Treasuries (ex-TIPS). The Fed, meanwhile, absorbed more dollars (held by foreign official institutions) in its foreign repo pool (FRP) for the first time in weeks (chart below).
As for spreads, the Wells Fargo asset “uncapping” and Fed Bowman’s latest speech suggest more balance sheet relief is coming than merely an SLR downgrade (and in classic Conks fashion, just after releasing an article calling for a deregulatory capitulation). This will likely curb short-term downside in swap spreads and serve as a bullish catalyst for duration, regardless of whether adequate plumbing relief is ultimately delivered.
In STIRs, our call for a reversal in cuts priced in for next year, as indicated by the Z5Z6 SOFR futures spread, appears to have played out. We’d expect this to continue. Our call for the SOFR-FF basis to tighten at the August expiry has yet to materialize, however.
Lastly, at the ultra short end (t-bills), unlike the 2023 debt ceiling drama, we’re not seeing much pricing in of trouble ahead. In our exchanges with participants, some desks have started to grow cautious, but not to the same extent as during the last debt ceiling theater.
Coming soon (WIP): a STIR monitor to accompany these updates.

Now onto the chartbook…

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

Money Market Update

Conks — Mon, 02 Jun 2025 14:18:48 GMT

Welcome to another Conks edition. In case you missed it or just joined us, the latest infographic went live recently.

Our next piece, featuring additional graphics, will be available soon.

click to enlarge (best viewed on desktop)

But first, a (gradually improving) money market update…

Summary & Brief Commentary

The cash flood of May ‘25 is likely behind us, set to be replaced with mild funding conditions, as tax receipts and additional extraordinary measures will soon be available to the Treasury. Bank reserves remain in the Fed's abundant zone, while the U.S. central bank’s RDE (chart below), its measure of reserve scarcity, indicates that a small change in reserve balances will have a negligible effect on the SOFR-IORB spread. From a global perspective, the EUR cross-currency (XCCY) basis has been widening, albeit with a gradual decline. Subsequently, we still expect the Fed to hold onto its remaining QT (balance sheet reduction), likely for as long as possible, at least till September.
These mild conditions will expire once a debt limit resolution is reached, with up to a trillion dollars in bill issuance set to hit the ultra-short end of the market. Since the Treasury warned that it would exhaust all its cash, plus extraordinary (now ordinary) measures, by August, we expect a bill flood — and a subsequent draining of reserves and RRP balances — to commence around that time. The August SOFR-FF basis expiry (SERFF:BBG or SR1-ZQ:CME) has priced out most of the move from Trump’s tariff cascade, making a long basis trade (thus a short SOFR/FF futures basis trade) attractive.

Further out on the curve, supply is not expected to play a significant role in ongoing UST fears, with coupon issuance expected to remain fairly steady, even until the end of 2026 in some scenarios. Likewise, the belly (>1y and <10y) of the curve will only see moderate increases in issuance. Foreign demand for USTs, however, will still be weakened by local currency bonds (such as Gilts and Bunds) offering superior returns over FX-hedged USTs, with JGBs offering Japanese investors a ~180bps relative pickup. The great dealer sheet congestion remains ongoing.
Meanwhile, in the macro space, we’re saying goodbye to the deferred rate cuts theme and saying hello to “good news” rate cuts (channeling Fed Waller) via a Z5Z6 steepener (long Dec ‘25, short Dec ‘26 in 3-month SOFR futures).
In the (swap) spreads market, practically the entire street is expecting short-end spreads to rally while long-end spreads to turn more negative. Spread tighteners, though, remain under threat from a surprise SLR announcement or “worse” — a relaxation of risk-based capital (such as risk-weighted assets). See our Relief Valve pieces for the mechanics involved.
Coming soon (WIP): a STIR monitor to accompany these updates.

And with that, onto the chartbook…

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

Money Market Update

Conks — Tue, 20 May 2025 01:33:00 GMT

Welcome to another Conks money market update. In case you missed it or just joined us, the conclusive part of the Fed’s Relief Valve went live recently.

Up next, it’s business as usual. We’ll demystify the obscure but increasingly systemic parts of the Treasury market, publishing infographics and other media as we go. As a reminder, the first-year taster rate for Pro expires on May 20th.

Now onto a (gradually improving) money market update…

Summary & Brief Commentary

Today, Dallas Fed President Logan hosted a panel on market structure comprising every major plumbing “fortification” we’ve covered extensively, from the Repo Defensive to the Treasury Market Evolution. While all modifications showed promise, the stigma of using the Fed to obtain liquidity remains the elephant in the room.
According to market heavyweights on the panel, most turmoil during the Trump “tariff cascade” was caused by equities and rates selling off simultaneously. Panelists also confirmed that the tariff cascade impacted swap spreads trades more than cash-futures basis trades, the latter getting most media attention. Our latest piece dives deep into swap spread mechanics, for those interested.
Meanwhile, cash remains plentiful in repo markets after a collateral squeeze, with lighter volumes persisting and SOFR now back below o/n FF.
As the debt ceiling binds, money funds will likely start moving cash out of the RRP facility and into non-Fed repos, while a lower chance of rate cuts may prompt more bill purchases further out on the curve. The X-date (the day the Treasury “runs out” of money) looks to be around mid-August.
As for the Moody’s downgrade, it is a nothingburger, in our view. This isn’t August 2011 or August 2023. The quick reversal by mid-Monday should not have been surprising. In fact, we were more astonished that only a few officials, such as the SNB President, stated that no alternative to USTs existed. Maybe that’s a sign to go long U.S. Treasuries after a pause in U.S. exceptionalism.
Lastly, we’ve prioritized adding a “STIR monitor” to the next money market update, as it’s more relevant than other monitors we’re working on, including a Treasury and bank monitor. Stay tuned…

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

Money Market Update

Conks — Fri, 18 Apr 2025 00:27:12 GMT

Welcome to another Conks edition. We’re now 48k+ strong.

This is one last money market update before we release the pilot edition of Conks Pro in conjunction with our next major piece. Since this has involved a significant amount of time, encompassing design, writing, and more (all done by yours truly), the pilot edition will be available to all paid subscribers. More details on the future of Conks will be available by the end of the month. Message for more information.

(just a preview image)

But before the big reveal, a money market update…

Summary & Brief Commentary

Unlike equities and bonds, funding markets withstood the tariff onslaught with minimal pain. Unsecured markets, such as commercial paper, saw rates jump, but nowhere near crisis levels. Some of the “basis boiz” (Conks’ complementary, not derogatory term for basis traders) were stopped out, yet no significant stress emerged compared to swap spreads, where a couple of large players were rumored to have been caught on the wrong side.
As the mini-episode unfolded, long SOFR-FF basis (short SOFR-FF futures basis) and tightening swap spread trades worked well, partly due to the reasons mentioned in earlier updates, but were exacerbated by the Trump tariff “cascade”. For basis and swap spreads, the next move is highly uncertain. Sometimes it’s best to do nothing until an opportunity presents itself.
Meanwhile, the TGA “hump” has begun to form with tax receipts prompting an influx of cash into the U.S. government’s bank account. The RRP could even hit zero, but this remains doubtful, given that sponsored repo has yet to reach its full potential. Unlike previously feared, a debt ceiling truce occurring simultaneously is now improbable. A ceasefire has been pushed forward, and the debt ceiling X-date is still likely mid-August. A debt ceiling resolution awaits and will test funding markets. The Fed Funds rate may even start to move higher after years in slumber…
In market structure, an intraday (triparty) repo market by the BNY — although operational for some time — has been officially marketed to large repo participants. However, those we have spoken to over the last year have yet to find a concrete use for it. For instance, traders already obtain liquidity in the DVP market before intraday triparty provides the same funding, and at a premium rate. Perhaps another Fed/BNY collaboration may incentivize usage and strengthen the Fed’s Repo Defensive.
Lastly, Trump’s ability to dismiss Powell may be overhyped. Powell has not been malfeasant and disagrees with Trump on policy, not the grounds for an easy dismissal. We have already seen pushback on the idea from Treasury Sec Bessent. And if Trump were to follow through, Powell would only have one more year left on his term and would be willing to fight to preserve his job. Is it worth the (rather significant) adverse market reaction? Surely not. Lest we forget, firing the Fed Chair also does not guarantee that rates will be cut that easily.

And with that, onto the chartbook…

Share Conks

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

Money Market Update

Conks — Mon, 07 Apr 2025 01:09:04 GMT

Welcome to another Conks update. In case you missed it, our latest infographics went live recently.

Meanwhile, we have decided to ~~get it out of the way and~~ open the Conks Store! As requested, more goodies, including infographic prints, will be added by the end of this year.

the signature Conks “it’s so over, we’re so back” mug - available in black and white. after payment processing fees, production costs, tax, and shipping fees (warning: large outside of UK and the US), Conks’ margin from one mug is equivalent to one large cup of coffee

Not only have we become a Shopify “expert” over the past few weeks, but we have also been developing a Conks Pro version for each future theme we cover. For more info on this, message below with “I’m interested in Conks Pro” and we’ll send you the details once they are set in stone.

And with that out of the way, let’s get into the money market update…

Summary & Brief Commentary

Instead of a full QT pause, the Fed executed a “QT slow” or quasi-pause. This was much less than the market expected, as continuing to long the SOFR-FF basis (shorting the SOFR-FF futures curve) paid off once again.
Going forward, the Fed reducing its runoff to only $5 billion in USTs (U.S. Treasuries) will likely reduce cash-futures basis trade opportunities and volumes. Coincidentally, hedge fund repo borrowing (a major part of the basis trade) seems to have peaked late last year (as seen in the chartbook below).
Even so, pressure on money market rates has come from demand for repos rather than scarcity of reserves. Glancing at our proxies on the money market spreads monitor (below), dealer balance sheets remain constrained — presumably less so on the “equity repo” side after last week. The latest FHLB data (see the FHLB monitor) reveals increased demand from megabanks for intraday liquidity via higher IBDA volumes. Yet, all other measures we track show no imminent need for reserves.
As for general liquidity, we maintain the same views as our last update. This is plainly a selloff driven by macro events, exacerbated by structural market forces: “General macro liquidity … remains ample. Yet, this won’t suffice against U.S. heads of state prompting a selloff for the greater good — leading to price-insensitive selling (e.g. trading desks hitting their risk limits).”
Elsewhere, the unwinding of the deregulatory hype trade has played out via a re-tightening of swap spreads, as expected in The Fed’s Relief Valve: Part I. Over the long term, we expect spreads to eventually widen, not tighten, since more deregulatory measures are implemented, such as the “SLR rework”. The level of plumbing deregulation depends on how much influence Treasury Secretary Bessent (and the Fed’s pro-deregulatory board member Bowman) can obtain.
As the deregulation narrative enters the mainstream, however, the Fed has increased its strictness behind the scenes. Officials have grown concerned over a trillion or so in overnight (o/n) Treasury repo exposures that the most prominent dealer banks hold, which — officials say — could lead to instability. Some banks have thus been forced to term out their repos via forward-starting trades to “lower” o/n exposures that bear more risk. But more on that later.

Now, onto the chartbook…

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

Money Market Update

Conks — Sun, 16 Mar 2025 01:49:45 GMT

Welcome to another Conks edition. In case you missed it, or you’ve just joined us, the first part of The Fed’s Relief Valve went live recently.

Part II will (further) demystify how Treasury market plumbing will be affected by potential changes to the Fed’s SLR and other regulations, and how to express this via actionable ideas — even without an ISDA. A small taster below…

from an upcoming Conks production

But first, a (gradually improving) money market update…

Summary & Brief Commentary

A lot has happened in STIRs since the last update. Yet, the most significant event was the latest FOMC minutes, in which multiple Fed officials (after possibly reading a Conks piece) finally suggested preventing a mirage in bank reserve levels arising from the latest debt limit drama — explained in the Money Market Blindspot series.
In response, the SOFR-FF basis didn’t move much, but it has recently been pricing in a QT pause announcement, with a halt likely to go into effect during April and/or May. A week or so ago, we went neutral on the idea that easing from a TGA drawdown and other drivers had been priced in, as the March SOFR-FF futures spread fell back to zero (i.e. when SOFR was expected to trade in line with the Fed Funds rate). The motivation to get out was any further talk of a QT pause.
Since then, markets seem to have suddenly priced in a halt to the Fed’s balance sheet runoff. We think no QT pause at the incoming FOMC meeting would again be bullish for April/May SOFR-FF (thus bearish for the SOFR-FF futures basis at the April/May expiries). We’ll find out early next week.
Meanwhile, in market structure, the Repo Market Exodus — a shift from “uncleared” to cleared repo markets — has been delayed. The SEC has deferred mandatory central clearing (where trades must be cleared and settled through a central counterparty) of U.S. Treasury repos and cash trades by one year.
The central clearing mandate also coincided with the Treasury Market Practices Group (TMPG) recommending mandatory minimum haircuts on repo trades, which could have reduced trade volumes that drive a more efficient Treasury market. But in late February, the TMPG changed its tone to suggest “prudent” haircuts instead. There’s now a bull market in UST liquidity concerns!
General macro liquidity, though, remains ample. Yet, this won’t suffice against U.S. heads of state prompting a selloff for the greater good — leading to price-insensitive selling (e.g. trading desks hitting internal risk limits).
Despite the U.S. admin’s latest actions, the Fed will likely stay on pause. SOFR futures are pricing one cut (-0.25) in the next quarter (viewable via SFRH5M5 on Bloomberg or CME:SR3H2025-CME:SR3M2025 on TradingView). Too much too soon, in our view.
Lastly, so much for a TGA drawdown saving equities. It shouldn’t have had a meaningful effect anyway, since no strong causal connection or statistical significance exists between equity prices and reserve levels.

And with that, onto the chartbook…

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

Money Market Update

Conks — Mon, 17 Feb 2025 02:56:55 GMT

Welcome to another Conks edition. We’re now 46,000+ strong. In case you missed it, the concluding part of the Money Market Blindspot went live recently.

In the next series, we’ll demystify the mechanics of a potential future easing in plumbing constraints (a slight hint below) and how this will affect flows and liquidity in U.S. money markets and Treasuries — as well as some related actionable ideas.

click to enlarge (best viewed on desktop)

But first, a (gradually improving) money market update…

Summary & Brief Commentary

The Fed’s RRP balance is approaching zero, which — despite the incoming TGA drawdown — has prompted numerous calls (on Financial Twitter, at least) for imminent financial doom. However, this only indicates that all spare cash has been invested in non-Fed assets, where dollar deposits have found a home outside the Fed’s facility (such as in t-bills). If the RRP does empty, repo trades will occur solely between private market participants. Zero Fed RRPs will thus help activate the next level of the repo hierarchy, where banks deploy more reserves into repo markets, earning a higher return than what the Fed pays on cash in their Fed accounts overnight — namely IORB.
Only when the RRP hits zero and banks’ reserve balances become too scarce will an illiquidity event possibly emerge — say, a money market “blindspot”. As mentioned in the last piece, the street (on average) expects the Fed to halt QT in Q2 this year, while dealers predict the Fed will wait much longer, Q1 2026 or later, to increase reserve balances.
Meanwhile, at its February refunding (a.k.a the QRA), the Treasury decided not to boost duration issuance dramatically — while also maintaining the same TGA target level, a topic highlighted in the last update. According to the CIA (that is, the Conks Intelligence Agency), those advising Bessent who wanted to unwind Yellen’s legacy — by supplying more duration to the market — weren’t present to influence his decision-making. Moreover, primary dealers and the Street had expected coupon issuance to remain stable.
In broader markets, which have moved somewhat sideways, our macro outlook remains untouched. Amidst a volatile geopolitical landscape, we expect risk assets to continue to perform well, better than bonds, with Trump-induced headlines remaining a sideshow.
In STIRs, futures markets have continued to defer rate cuts. Longer-term plays, such as the SOFR Z5Z6 flattener (viewable via SFRZ5Z6 on Bloomberg or CME:SR3Z2025-CME:SR3Z2026 on TradingView), have worked well. As for the SOFR-FF basis, overlooking looser money market conditions from a TGA drawdown continues to work. The SOFR-FF (SR1-ZQ) futures basis in the coming months has tightened (i.e. pricing in tighter funding conditions) while also pricing in tighter conditions post the consensus resolution date of the latest debt limit battle.
Lastly, we’ve seen an extensive widening in swap spreads (i.e. Treasuries outperforming swaps) after multiple deregulatory catalysts have unfolded. This was not only driven by an expected TGA cash flood and the Fed’s Barr stepping down but also by further comments from Fed Chair Powell and the Fed’s Michelle Bowman — Barr’s likely replacement — on excluding Treasuries from the SLR (Supplementary Leverage Ratio). More on the mechanics of the SLR (and potential ideas around it) is coming up shortly.

And with that, onto the chartbook…

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

Money Market Update

Conks — Sat, 01 Feb 2025 20:26:00 GMT

Welcome to another Conks edition. This month, we demystified intraday repo market flows and the TGA drawdown, while laying out our market views and publishing the first part of The Money Market Blindspot, which went live recently.

Part II will be released shortly (another taster below).

But first, a (gradually improving) money market update...

Summary & Brief Commentary

While the Bank of Canada announces the end of its version of quantitative tightening (QT), the Fed has vowed to continue QT for as long as another “repocalypse” can be averted. Fed Chair Powell, at the latest FOMC press conference, reiterated that reserves remain ample while failing to mention a QT cessation date. We expect the Fed’s balance sheet runoff to end by June.
Meanwhile, with Scott Bessent now in office, the February QRA (quarterly refunding announcement) will tell us if he will keep his word by reducing bill issuance. Bessent’s promises, however, align with what you’d expect the Treasury to do under a binding debt limit: reduce the share of bills and issue more coupons (>1y maturities) — a win-win for the new Treasury Sec.
There’s also been talk of reducing the TGA target (currently $850 billion), which will lower issuance and save money for the taxpayer, but only if the Fed preserves QT. Presently, the central bank pays interest to money funds via the RRP and banks on their reserves via IORB (interest on reserve balances), eliminating most cost savings from a reduced U.S. government bank account.
Meanwhile, since our last update, our macro outlook remains unchanged. The Fed has turned less hawkish, and Conks’ liquidity measures (see below) remain bullish. As we implied earlier, despite dollar strength and volatile geopolitics, risk assets should continue to perform well, outperforming bonds, with the odd bout of volatility.
Within STIRs, we like deferring rate cuts into 2026, expressed via a SFRZ5Z6 flattener (short SOFR Dec 2025, long SOFR Dec 2026). Meanwhile, the market does not expect a TGA drawdown to have much tightening effect. As per our TGA drawdown infographic, swap spreads have widened, but SOFR-FF hasn’t tightened significantly. Easier funding conditions have been priced in, so receiving the March SOFR-FF basis — i.e. shorting the SR1-ZQ (SOFR 1-month - Fed Funds) futures spread at the March expiry — could be the play.
Also in STIR, flows from non-centrally cleared to centrally cleared repo markets, A.K.A The Repo Exodus, have failed to empty the RRP. Soon, the TGA drawdown will further delay the Fed’s facility from falling to zero.
Lastly, we now have 25 Fed primary dealers in U.S. Treasuries, with officials approving the Japanese securities behemoth SMBC Nikko as a trading counterparty. Speaking of USTs, the latest flow data suggests that, as the dollar has peaked, foreign official institutions have stopped selling Treasuries. Demand from the private sector remains strong nonetheless.

And with that, onto the chartbook…

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

Money Market Update

Conks — Sun, 19 Jan 2025 19:23:56 GMT

Welcome to another Conks edition. We’re now 45,000+ strong. In case you missed it, we published — in exhaustive detail — the intraday flows of the U.S. repo market.

In the previous money market update, we hinted at how debt ceiling-induced flows will induce money market volatility. Our upcoming piece will cover this in detail. A “small” teaser below…

click to enlarge (best viewed on tablet or desktop)

But first, a (gradually improving) money market update...

Summary & Brief Commentary

Internal documents created during the 2019 repo spike were released by the Fed last week. These memos revealed how many reserve-draining catalysts, described in the Fed’s Repo Defensive series, helped induce the “repocalypse”.
As of today, both reserve balances and elasticity (as shown in the chartbook below) remain in “bullish territory”, just as the TGA drawdown commences. Thus, interbank liquidity will increase further. Most TGA outflows (i.e. reserves), however, will end up as Fed RRPs, with depositors moving into higher-yielding money funds — which must turn to the Fed’s balance sheet as t-bill supply decreases. A debt limit resolution will unwind these flows.
Regarding the debt limit, Sec. Yellen has announced that extraordinary measures will begin on January 21st. (Subscribers can check the chat now for related infographics, which will be explained in more detail soon.)
With recent moves in risk assets, our view that the rise in the DXY (U.S. dollar index) is not a sign of weak liquidity seems to be playing out. Despite increased credit creation, an ample supply of collateral and reserves, plus an RRP above zero, risk assets and the dollar can still rise together.
Right now, the bond market is more of a threat to equities. We’re trying to understand how Bessent will approach duration (longer-term debt) issuance. After all, the U.S. Treasury is not a hedge fund but a department increasingly run on models and how officials interpret their output. We think Bessent may be misperceiving why Yellen chose heavy bill issuance, so any rise in coupon issuance won’t be for political motives but because of “technical factors” — i.e., the output of internal Treasury models, which will start favoring increased duration issuance in the second half of ‘25. Muster the “stealth tightening”!
As an offsetting force, following recent longer-term yield moves, more foreign buyers will likely re-enter the U.S. Treasury market. European & Canadian investors have only just been able to receive a superior yield from 10-year Treasuries on an FX-hedged basis. Japanese investors, however, still need another ~75bps of pickup.
Elsewhere, the Fed’s Vice Chair of Supervision, Michael Barr, announced he will step down in the next quarter. Swap spreads — the difference between swap rates and the yield on U.S. Treasuries — “rallied” on the announcement, showing the market expects deregulation after his departure (since a major driver of swap spreads is the capital costs involved in market making). This alone won’t be enough to unwind a lot of the tightening (downward move) in swap spreads. Soon, increased UST (U.S. Treasury) supply will resume as the primary bearish driver.
Lastly, upcoming money market monitors include a U.S. Treasury monitor and a banking monitor. Stay tuned!

And with that, onto the chartbook…

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

Money Market Update

Conks — Sun, 05 Jan 2025 16:57:32 GMT

In case you missed it — or you’ve just joined us — right as we were about to publish our last piece, the Fed executed steps to calm money market pressures over the year-end turn...

These actions have required us to rethink not one but two articles we were in the process of writing, which happened to be large pieces of work. Thus, we’re releasing some pieces on more timely plumbing topics (a clue below) beforehand.

But first, a gradually improving money market update...

Summary & Brief Commentary

The Fed, along with the usual afternoon program, announced morning SRF (Standing Repo Facility) operations over year-end — a sign that the Fed’s Repo Defensive is now in motion. In talks with participants, central bank officials’ willingness to hold morning operations prompted traders to negotiate repos at lower rates.
The stigma of using the SRF, however, persisted and became evident as hundreds of billions in repos traded above the Fed’s minimum SRF bid — the cheapest rate available — yet nobody tapped the facility at year-end.
Despite these operations, as anticipated, we saw a spike in FX swaps conducted with the Fed (as JPMorgan’s immense stockpile of reserves couldn’t bridge all imbalances), a massive rise in Fed RRPs (as dealers rejected money funds’ cash balances to tidy their balance sheets), and a subsequent sharp decline in bank reserves (as an increase in Fed RRPs causes a decrease in reserve balances).
These flows will shortly unwind as money funds move out of the RRP and back into private repos, with dealers and banks now willing to offer balance sheet capacity.
Moreover, EFFR (the Fed Funds rate) didn’t budge at year-end, further verifying that recent rate upheavals are funding-related, not down to the scarcity of reserve balances in Fed accounts.
Meanwhile, in macro markets, the sharp rise in the U.S. dollar index is not a sign of waning liquidity but the result of markets pricing in the Trump trade and relative weakness in Europe. Conks’ monitors (below) suggest “business as usual” for dollar liquidity and, thus, risk assets — i.e. up and to the right.
Lastly, the debt ceiling will become the most prominent theme in money markets until (and briefly after) a resolution has been reached in Congress. Interbank liquidity will rise as the TGA gets drawn down, yet this will not necessarily ease funding pressures. More on that later…

Now, for the chartbook (more monitors on the way)…

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

A Year-End Update

Conks — Sun, 15 Dec 2024 18:44:08 GMT

What a year it’s been. Despite many setbacks, Conks has prevailed. Sticking to the niche of monetary plumbing, we have (exhaustively) mapped out multiple dollar markets, provided an overview of several upcoming market evolutions, and helped decorate numerous subscribers’ office walls with “schizo-level” (your words, not ours) infographics. What’s more, we’re surprised to see our growth continue. A big thanks to everyone who has read and supported the blog so far.

To close out the year, we’ll return with our most extensive piece yet.

Another teaser? Sure…

Brace for an explosive year-end!

Happy Xmas and/or holidays,

Conks

If you’ve benefited from our work this year, consider subscribing for 2025.

Have a friend/family member interested in financial plumbing? Give the gift of Conks this holiday season!

And, of course, one more chartbook…

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

Money Market Update

Conks — Mon, 09 Dec 2024 23:56:12 GMT

Welcome to the latest Conks edition. We’re almost 44,000 readers strong. Our upcoming piece, The Repo Market Fortification — featuring multiple new infographics, will hit your screens soon. A “small” taster below…

click to enlarge (best viewed on desktop with a zoom function)

But first, a (gradually improving) money market update…

Summary & Brief Commentary

The next debt ceiling battle, which could prompt a liquidity blindspot described in The Fed’s Global Put, was mentioned in the latest FOMC minutes. This will act as a hurdle for the Fed to continue reducing its balance sheet, yet officials officially disregarded the debt ceiling as a motive to end QT.
If the debt ceiling battle is prolonged, Conks projects the U.S. Treasury has enough money plus extraordinary measures to last until Q3 2025 before the X-date — the day the Treasury runs out of money.
Meanwhile, the Fed Funds market has seen the largest spike in volume this year, while repo pressures have persisted. SOFR is printing above EFFR consistently. Nevertheless, Fed officials have stated they will only consider ending QT when EFFR starts moving up with SOFR. The Fed Funds rate, however, continues to print in a straight line. To quote a recent meme: nothing ever happens. Liquidity remains abundant.
Elsewhere in money markets, as anticipated, large inflows into U.S. MMFs have persisted despite semi-sharp rate cuts, preserving tighter (i.e. more positive) XCCY bases. Conks expects cross-currency bases to remain elevated until the second half of next year.
We’ve also received tons of queries about the rise of “equity repos.” In an equity repo, a cash borrower pledges equities (i.e. stocks) from its inventory to receive short-term cash. Equity repos are uncommon because most stock lending occurs in the securities lending market, not the repo market. Triparty equity repo volumes have climbed primarily because of increased demand for equities, which have also risen in value, meaning dealers can obtain more cash against equity collateral.
The type of “equity repo” that has garnered significant media attention does not involve repos backed by equities. The phrase describes leveraged equity exposure, such as entering into a total return swap (TRS) with banks and dealers. These dealings are commonly priced at SOFR (a repo rate benchmark) plus a spread. So, the term “equity repo rate” may not refer to an actual equity repo, like those traded in the triparty repo market, which dealers use primarily to boost their cash balances. In short, “equity repo” is not usually a phrase to describe a repo but leveraged equity exposure obtained outside the repo market.
Lastly, we’ve included another useful Fed liquidity gauge by comparing bank assets to reserves. As is evident with other measures included in our monitors (below), we’re nowhere close to a scarce reserve regime.

Now, onto the chartbook (more monitors on the way)…

Give the gift of financial plumbing this holiday season…

Source: U.S. Treasury. Daily Treasury Statement

Money Market Update

Conks — Wed, 27 Nov 2024 23:57:00 GMT

In case you missed it — or you’ve just joined us — the last part of The Fed’s Repo Defensive went live recently.

Next, we explore how private behemoths will implement their own repo backstop alongside the Fed’s emergency facility.

best viewed on desktop (requires zoom - light version)

But first, a (gradually improving) money market update...

Summary & Brief Commentary

The latest revelation is that the Fed has indicated it will delay the end of QT (quantitative tightening) for as long as possible, reducing its balance sheet as much as possible. Operation “Empty the RRP” has commenced.
In the latest FOMC minutes, Fed officials hinted at a technical adjustment to the o/n RRP rate by lowering it 5bps. This change would clear the last few hundred billion dollars from its RRP facility while pushing down repo rates (SOFR) and the Fed Funds rate (EFFR) within its target range. Per friend Brian Gierke at CME, the announcement pushed volumes in related STIR futures (SR1-ZQ) to all-time highs.
U.S. central bank leaders have implied that EFFR has to rise just below IORB before QT ends. As we’ve often said, the psychological effect of the Fed ending its balance sheet reduction is stronger than the actual mechanical easing. A rare overlap between risk assets and money markets will develop where frontrunning the end of QT (by observing the IORB-EFFR spread narrowing) may cause buying pressure in risk assets.
Speaking of risk assets, bank stocks have rallied so much that this will impact funding pressures moving into year-end. Dominant market makers will likely pull back aggressively from repo at year-end to avoid higher G-SIB surcharges — as we covered in The Great Flattening. Put simply, if their stock prices rally, banks must hold more capital — unless they unwind the size of their repo or derivatives holdings to compensate.
Meanwhile, in XCCY land, EURUSD and GBPUSD XCCY bases have continued to rally despite U.S. dollar strength, revealing no shortage of dollar liquidity — as fellow basis enthusiast, , pointed out.
Also aiding liquidity, the share of Treasury bill issuance will likely remain above 20%, with members of TBAC raising their target from 15-20% to around 20%. This percentage should slowly increase after Trump’s victory. Moreover, duration issuance won’t increase dramatically either until late 2025. All in all, a positive for risk assets in the long term.
Dealer balance sheets have cleared somewhat with a steeper curve, but funding pressures should persist with significant U.S. Treasury settlements. Expect tighter short-end swap spreads.
Many X (formerly Twitter) accounts also circulated a “scary” chart of 10-year Euro swap spreads, which turned negative for the first time since (not 2007 but) forever. Of course, little causation exists between U.S. risk assets and EUR swap spreads. We’d attribute this plunge to ECB QT, Trump's victory, and associated trades. Heavy hedging from European firms paired with bank treasurers' reluctance to nibble on duration has also pushed this spread considerably wider.
Elsewhere in money markets, the latest FHLB data showed that FHLBs favored lending into the Fed Funds market over repo markets. As our new money market spreads monitor (below) demonstrates, subtracting repo rates from EFFR (Fed Funds) offered higher yields — minus on quarter-ends.

And with that, time for the chartbook (more monitors on the way)…

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

Money Market Update

Conks — Sat, 26 Oct 2024 20:37:09 GMT

In case you missed it — or you’ve just joined us — the first part of the Fed’s Repo Defensive went live recently.

Part II will hit your screens soon. But first, a money market update…

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Reserve Demand Elasticity

Summary & Brief Commentary

As mentioned in The Fed’s Repo Defensive, it was a stormy September quarter-end, with over $600 billion exceeding the Fed’s minimum borrowing rate at its standing repo facility (SRF). Yet, only a few tapped the Fed’s emergency repo installation. Like with other backstops, officials may need to incentivize usage, and that’s not straightforward. They could increase the types of counterparties that can access emergency repos or decide to centrally-clear SRF trades. But after that, you still have to beat stigma. More on how this might play out is coming soon.
Before the repocalypse, which we referred to recently, large amounts of bank lending via repos — measured by how much SOFR volume traded above IORB (interest on reserve balances) — was a warning sign of scarce liquidity. However, according to Fed data, only around 50% of interdealer trades (where banks tend to transact) print above IORB, much lower than when the repocalypse emerged. Funding pressures are increasing but haven’t reached their limit.
Coincidentally, the Fed released a new liquidity measure: RDE (short for reserve demand elasticity). According to its architects, “[RDE] measures by how much the federal funds rate changes in response to a small shift in reserve supply” (see above). More precisely, it measures potential changes to the spread between IORB (interest on reserve balances paid to banks) and EFFR (effective federal funds rate paid in the interbank market to obtain bank reserves).
In other words, if RDE decreases, the Fed Funds rate has likely increased, indicating scarce reserve balances at banks. But if reserves are ample, then changes in reserve balances won’t affect the Fed Funds rate, and therefore, RDE will equal near zero (i.e. the IORB-EFFR spread doesn't move). Right now, we’re hovering in the “ample zone”.
Meanwhile, as explained in The Repo Market Dislocation: Part II, the Fed has finalized its changes to SOFR (which will go live in November). Centrally cleared repos flowing into SOFR via The Repo Exodus will no longer severely alter the Fed’s primary repo benchmark.
The Fed’s RRP usage continues to decline but will persist until money market funds (MMFs) decide to increase their — self-imposed — counterparty exposure limits or add more sponsored repo relationships. This remains the key driver keeping RRP volumes above zero.
There was also finally a significant drawdown in the foreign repo pool (FRP), the Fed’s excess cash absorber for foreign central banks unable to invest their dollars elsewhere (chart available below). Has the Fed lowered its secretive FRP rate, prompting outflows? We won’t know as it’s under lock and key. But money has begun to flow out and into U.S. bank deposits and t-bills.
As for macro, equities outperformed bonds. Now, the opposite appears more attractive. We think the Fed still cuts twice (two 25bps cuts, to be precise) this year. Don’t fight the Fed — but maybe fight Conks.

Now for the chartbook (more monitors — four to be exact — on the way)…

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

Money Market Update

Conks — Thu, 10 Oct 2024 21:31:00 GMT

In case you missed it — or you’ve just joined us — the concluding piece of the Fed’s Global Put went live recently.

Coming soon, we’ll examine the weaknesses in the Fed’s emergency repo facility (a taster below) and a cross-currency swap market primer. Stay tuned!

But first, a (gradually improving) money market update...

Summary & Brief Commentary

Fed Chair Powell and SOMA manager Perli (the Fed’s “portfolio manager”) appear satisfied with the ampleness of reserve balances. As anticipated in The Fed’s Global Put, they deem upward pressure on rates in the Fed Funds market as a critical sign to end QT.
After recent speeches and the September FOMC meeting, it’s abundantly clear that the Fed wants to see EFFR (Fed Funds) move higher before ending balance sheet runoff. Expect market participants to front-run any Fed response to EFFR moving toward IORB.
The Fed’s monitors track both repo and interbank (reserves) markets. Fed officials making the call to end QT are closely watching whether too much pressure is building in repo markets and whether it could “spill over” into the Fed Funds market. But as of writing, this is not happening.
Hedge fund repo exposures continue to rise, increasing demand for repo funding. This has caused increased turbulence on quarter-ends, but the Fed is happy for the SRF (standing repo facility) to be used in small amounts on these reporting dates.
RRP usage will persist until more sponsored repo relationships increase the number of potential counterparties in private markets. This is one of the drivers keeping RRP volumes elevated and will take more time to clear.
Liquidity remains ample in money markets and global dollar markets. Reserves have declined but nowhere near dangerous levels, while the Conks money market stress monitor shows no warning signs. Bond volatility, however, is likely to trough during a week with a lot of Fed speakers.
From a macro perspective, equities likely have more near-term upside than bonds and precious metals. We still expect consolidation in DXY, bonds, and precious metals before a continuation of the prevailing trend.
Oh, and the China stimulus is real this time. We’re not fading it.
We’re working on several new monitors that will hopefully be ready by the next update. For now, rate cuts have produced some interesting charts. Look how they massacred my boy(s)!

Anyway, onto the chartbook (additional monitors coming soon)…

Source: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Statement

Money Market Update

Conks — Fri, 20 Sep 2024 01:15:00 GMT

In case you missed it — or you’ve just joined us — our latest piece, The Fed’s Global Put: Part I, went live recently.

Part II is on the way (plus a primer on the mysterious cross-currency (XCCY) swaps market). Stay tuned.

But first, a (gradually improving) money market update...

Summary & Brief Commentary

You may have heard that Fed Chair Powell cut 50bps. Powell also mentioned that reserves remain ample. We agree, for now. Per The Fed’s Global Put (and for reasons noted in the upcoming Part II), we think they will cease QT in early 2025.
Contrary to popular belief, money market funds don’t usually see outflows because of rate cuts immediately, not even 50bps. Historically, rates need to fall below 2% for any significant outflows — and thus buying pressure elsewhere.
As we move into Q4, another “debt limit” or “TGA drawdown” debacle will likely become a topic of discussion. Conks projects the Treasury has enough cash + extraordinary measures to last until Q3 2025 before the X-date is nigh.
“Who will buy all that debt?” Foreign investors mostly, as it turns out, according to the Fed’s latest flow of funds data. Meanwhile, the Fed remains a net seller.
Are more Wall Street repos imminent? SOFR has begun to move higher toward interest on reserve balances (IORB). Meanwhile, as has been the case the entire year, Fed Funds (EFFR) trades flat as a pancake. In the Basel III era, secured rates trading above unsecured rates is now a feature, not a bug.
The previous money market update marked the short-term bottom for the SOFR spreads we cited, which have now entered consolidation and will continue lower, in our view. Market participants will have been thinking about what lies ahead. After the first cut, you create momentum. There’s a fear you might get left behind. Following a slight unwind in positioning, we think this dynamic takes hold.
Finally, with great sadness, we say goodbye to the not-QE corridor — the unconventional monetary policy infographic. Conventional rate cuts are back.

Now, for the chartbook (more monitors coming soon)…