enough funding alarm bells have chimed, with the Fed set to announce or initiate its next plumbing put. the enigma, however, is deciding when to unleash its next "bazooka" — sometime before year-end
Great commentary and analysis as usual. The Fed offering Term REPO’s seems inline with Lorie Logan’s thoughts on managing rates via ceiling and Miki Bowman discussing a return to scarce reserves which Powell crushed at NABE. I think this week’s conference in Dallas will be very interesting and important.
Spreads (such as SOFR-FF) are likely to come down on any QT end-date announcement, but then, at some pace depending on the Fed’s response, will continue to widen into year-end.
Does this mean you expect the SOFR/FF basis to be less negative post QT end date announcement? But it'll still move towards a more negative basis due to year-end dynamics, albeit more contained?
Great commentary and analysis as usual. The Fed offering Term REPO’s seems inline with Lorie Logan’s thoughts on managing rates via ceiling and Miki Bowman discussing a return to scarce reserves which Powell crushed at NABE. I think this week’s conference in Dallas will be very interesting and important.
thank you sir, as usual
Spreads (such as SOFR-FF) are likely to come down on any QT end-date announcement, but then, at some pace depending on the Fed’s response, will continue to widen into year-end.
Does this mean you expect the SOFR/FF basis to be less negative post QT end date announcement? But it'll still move towards a more negative basis due to year-end dynamics, albeit more contained?
yes but depending on measures implemented (search for full-blown)